QB's and the 2014 NFL Draft

With all the hype surrounding the top 4 QB's in the NFL Draft, most of the top 10 teams are looking to make a splash with one of them. This year's draft, while not bad, is not terribly good for QB's. There are four QB's that stand out: Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater. Here is my take on this year's draft as pertaining to the QB position.

There is no sure-fire, bonafide stud at the position. There is no Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, or Andrew Luck in this year's draft. What we do have are probably a couple of mid-level starters and a bunch of backups. However, since most of the top 10 teams in the draft need a QB in the worst way, these teams will overdraft (aka reach) for one of these QB's. The team that hits on one of these QB's will be better off than before.

Most draft analysts are split between Bortles and Jadeveon Clowney as the first overall pick. Again, there is no clear-cut top overall pick in this year's draft. Clowney comes in with issues of his own: that he lacks a solid work ethic and takes plays off. Bortles has a high upside, but he's raw and needs a couple of years of development. In the win-now atmosphere of the NFL, that's very risky.

While Bortles is a solid enough guy off the field, can a team afford to wait two (or possibly more) years of him developing? Perhaps that is why teams like Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Minnesota are where they are at now: no solid QB play. Any number of factors can also come into play: a slew of injuries, players getting old, and poor drafting over the years.

As for the other QB's, I'd probably be looking to draft one of them in the second round. (As a Fresno State fan and alumnus, I LOVE Derek Carr but realistically he's a late first round to early second round selection.) Manziel is boom or bust. Bridgewater has career backup written all over him. (Do you want to draft him as high as third overall? I wouldn't.) These QB's are not franchise QB's like a Newton, Griffin, or Luck. I think Carr will be a solid starter, probably a QB that takes a team to the playoffs, but in order to go to the Super Bowl, he'll need his team to have a stout defense and a strong running game, plus he would have to have a stellar season.

In short, if I were one of these teams listed above, I'd probably be listening to trade offers and possibly trading down if the right offer comes along. I know Atlanta is looking to trade up, possibly to #1, to get Clowney. I could see a team or two trading back into the late first round of a couple of QB's are still on the board. This year is a bad year to be a poor team needing a QB. It takes about three seasons to determine how good or bad a draft year is. For these teams, wait until 2017 to fully grade out this year's draft.

2009 NFL Predictions--NFC North

My predictions continue with the NFC North.

Minnesota Vikings: they did acquire a certain ex-Packer gunslinger. While I think the acquisition will help stabilize the QB position in name only, it's not going to be enough for a Super Bowl run. Favre clearly is on the downside of his career, and at some point that will be exposed. They do have the best RB in the NFL in Adrian Peterson and a superb backup in Chester Taylor, but at some point, defenses will line up 8, sometimes 9, in the box to stop them. Back in the day, Favre would have ate that up all day, but his fastball has lost a lot of zip, and hitters are teeing off on it. While he'll have a solid offensive line to protect him, that lack of velocity will end up causing turnovers. The defense is solid, and they have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. They do have good enough balance to win the division, but a deep playoff run depends on the health of Favre. He's older, and more injury-prone. (1st)

Green Bay Packers: they have the division's best QB in Aaron Rodgers. Yes, I said it. Rodgers is BETTER than Cutler. Rodgers will continue to improve, and become that franchise QB. (Being Brett Favre's backup for several years doesn't hurt.) They need to have a more solid ground game. The defense is emerging under Dom Capers and should be vastly improved. The lack of a ground game will keep the Packers from becoming the best team in the division. (2nd)

Chicago Bears: while Jay Cutler is a very talented QB, he's not quite at Rodgers' level yet. But he'll get there. Cutler is the Bears' most legit franchise QB since Sid Luckman. If Cutler were a baseball player, he'd be known as a five-tool player. He has an emerging superstar RB in Matt Forte. But who does he have to throw the ball to? And that defense! It's getting older, and showing signs of wear and tear. (WHY didn't they draft James Laurinaitis to succeed Brian Urlacher?) Cutler will help ease the inevitable rebuilding process. (3rd)

Detroit Lions: where else can you go but UP after the first winless season in NFL history? I'm still shaking my head in disbelief that an NFL team ran the table in reverse. Jim Schwartz was brought in as the new head coach. Genius move. He's earned his shot. I expressed my disagreement about Matt Stafford being the first overall pick. I'll admit, he's proven me wrong. Give him a year as Daunte Culpepper's backup and he will grow into that franchise QB. The defense has been overhauled. It's still a work in progress. But the Lions will win some games this season. (4th)

TOMORROW: THE NFC WEST