QB's and the 2014 NFL Draft

With all the hype surrounding the top 4 QB's in the NFL Draft, most of the top 10 teams are looking to make a splash with one of them. This year's draft, while not bad, is not terribly good for QB's. There are four QB's that stand out: Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater. Here is my take on this year's draft as pertaining to the QB position.

There is no sure-fire, bonafide stud at the position. There is no Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, or Andrew Luck in this year's draft. What we do have are probably a couple of mid-level starters and a bunch of backups. However, since most of the top 10 teams in the draft need a QB in the worst way, these teams will overdraft (aka reach) for one of these QB's. The team that hits on one of these QB's will be better off than before.

Most draft analysts are split between Bortles and Jadeveon Clowney as the first overall pick. Again, there is no clear-cut top overall pick in this year's draft. Clowney comes in with issues of his own: that he lacks a solid work ethic and takes plays off. Bortles has a high upside, but he's raw and needs a couple of years of development. In the win-now atmosphere of the NFL, that's very risky.

While Bortles is a solid enough guy off the field, can a team afford to wait two (or possibly more) years of him developing? Perhaps that is why teams like Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Minnesota are where they are at now: no solid QB play. Any number of factors can also come into play: a slew of injuries, players getting old, and poor drafting over the years.

As for the other QB's, I'd probably be looking to draft one of them in the second round. (As a Fresno State fan and alumnus, I LOVE Derek Carr but realistically he's a late first round to early second round selection.) Manziel is boom or bust. Bridgewater has career backup written all over him. (Do you want to draft him as high as third overall? I wouldn't.) These QB's are not franchise QB's like a Newton, Griffin, or Luck. I think Carr will be a solid starter, probably a QB that takes a team to the playoffs, but in order to go to the Super Bowl, he'll need his team to have a stout defense and a strong running game, plus he would have to have a stellar season.

In short, if I were one of these teams listed above, I'd probably be listening to trade offers and possibly trading down if the right offer comes along. I know Atlanta is looking to trade up, possibly to #1, to get Clowney. I could see a team or two trading back into the late first round of a couple of QB's are still on the board. This year is a bad year to be a poor team needing a QB. It takes about three seasons to determine how good or bad a draft year is. For these teams, wait until 2017 to fully grade out this year's draft.

2011 Mock Draft

Here is my 2011 Mock Draft:

1. Carolina: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.



2. Denver: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama.



3. Buffalo: Von Miller, DE/LB, Texas A & M.



4. Cincinnati: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.



5. Arizona: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU.



6. Cleveland: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama.



7. San Francisco: Robert Quinn, DE/LB, North Carolina.



8. Tennessee: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri.



9. Dallas: Tyron Smith, OT, USC.



10. Washington: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn.



11. Houston, Prince Amukumara, CB, Nebraska.



12. Minnesota: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri.



13. Detroit: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College.



14. St. Louis: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois.



15. Miami: Mike Pouncey, C-G, Florida.



16. Jacksonville: DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson.



17. New England (from Oakland): J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin.



18. San Diego: Cameron Jordan, DE, California.



19. N.Y. Giants: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin.



20. Tampa Bay: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue.



21. Kansas City Chiefs: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado.



22. Indianapolis: Danny Watkins, G/T, Baylor.



23. Philadelphia: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.



24. New Orleans Saints: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State.



25. Seattle Seahawks: Jake Locker, QB, Washington.



26. Baltimore Ravens: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple.



27. Atlanta Falcons: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.



28. New England: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama.



29. Chicago Bears: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State.



30. N.Y. Jets: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor.



31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas.



32. Green Bay Packers: Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois.

Less than four hours before the draft! Have at it!

Carolina Panthers--Week 16

Being a Panthers fan out on the west coast, I don't get to see many of their games, unless they're playing the 49ers or Raiders, and that's a rarity. (They did get one of their two wins against the Niners this year.) The NFL-N offered me as a fan a RARE treat: a nationally televised game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Perhaps it's time to stuff the Panthers back into obscurity after this game.

OH the horrah!! After a pretty decent start in which they moved the ball, the Steelers adjusted and the Panthers didn't. Therein lies the problem. Coaching, or lack thereof. The Panthers DO have talent on both sides of the ball, but they're not well-coached. Too many mental errors, breakdowns in coverages, poor tackling--they can be attributed to poor coaching. The players DO play hard and have no quit in them--that is a testament to John Fox.

Offensively, the Panthers have the WORST offensive coordinator in Jeff Davidson. No imagination, doesn't make adjustments, and doesn't put his players in a position to succeed. Plus no quarterback stability doesn't help. I'm ready for the Panthers to draft Andrew Luck IF he comes out. (Rumor has it IF Jim Harbaugh stays at Stanford, Luck will stay also.) Jimmy Clausen is NOT cutting it. The Panthers could very well be the first team since the 1992 Seattle Seahawks to NOT score multiple touchdowns in ANY game in a season, as they (mercifully) finish their season against Atlanta. One good thing, though: they ALWAYS give Atlanta a hard time. This is embarrassing: finishing up against two Super Bowl-caliber teams and not even showing up.

Defensively, they have an emerging stud in DE Charles Johnson. He has six consecutive games with a QB sack, tying the franchise record set by Kevin Greene WAY back in 1996. (He sacked Big Ben TWICE.) Now they need a BIG run-stuffer, a big oak tree in the middle that stops opposing runners in their tracks. I like how DC Ron Meeks makes adjustments, but sometimes he overthinks himself. The linebacking corps that was in there wasn't bad--Beason is a stud, but he had a couple of guys off the street alongside him. The secondary is PUTRID. THEY CAN'T COVER ANYONE!! Any one of the Lug Nuts could have made a big play on that secondary with Big Ben throwing to us!! GET RID OF THE WHOLE SECONDARY EXCEPT FOR CHRIS GAMBLE (He was out with an injury.)

As far as special teams, they have a good punt returner in Captain Munnerlyn. But they need someone that is a threat to make a house call on kickoff returns. A Devin Hester-type, if you will. Someone that strikes abject fear into the hearts of their opponents. The guys we have don't do that. Steve Smith USED to do that when he returned punts and kickoffs way back in the day. Kicking wise, John Kasay is old, not as accurate as he used to be, and doesn't kickoff any more due to his decreased length on kickoffs. Jason Baker is atrocious as a punter. Granted, the wind was swirling and was consistently between 15-20 MPH. It even knocked down the Steelers' punter's punts.

Overall, the game was unwatchable. What made it unwatchable was how atrocious the Panthers' offense is, aside from Jonathan Stewart. Even Smith dropped a few balls, which is uncharacteristic of him.

My take on the Panthers is this: they need an identity. Mr. Richardson needs to hire someone to handle ALL the football operations and pay him HUGE jack. John Fox won't return; that's pretty much the worst-kept secret in the league. I'm torn about whether or not hiring Bill Cowher is a good move. On the surface it is. But does HE want to subject himself to the grind of coaching again? AND would he want total control of the operations? What about his emotions in dealing with his late wife's passing over the summer? Those are questions that Mr. Richardson and Cowher would have to answer. IF Mr. Richardson is going to hire someone to control the football operations, he NEEDS to trust him and let him do his job.

As the GM, I'd be inclined to hire a coach that stresses discipline and character, and who would want to bring in good character players. Then let him hire his own coaching staff. (But getting rid of Davidson is A MUST.) I'd make recommendations and suggestions, but the final decision would be the head coach's to make. If the new coach requests, I'd draft Andrew Luck (if he comes out) first overall and bring Jake Delhomme back as that veteran QB and mentor to Luck. I'd dangle Clausen as trade bait. A functional movement coach would be hired to reduce the amount of injuries to the players. NO detail would be unattended.

The Panthers DO have talent, they just need an overhaul of the coaching staff, plus an identity.

Are the Carolina Panthers stuck on "suck" this year?

From the performance against the woeful Buffalo Bills, they certainly are! The Panthers dominated in every facet but the scoreboard. They outgained the Bills 425-167 in total yards, held a 2 to 1 advantage in time of possession, but FOUR turnovers killed them. I can give several reasons why the Panthers are stuck on suck.

1. Turnovers. Jake Delhomme threw three more costly interceptions, two of which led to the Bills' touchdowns. When is this guy going to get benched? It's a race between him and JaMarcus Russell to see who's going to set the NFL record for most interceptions in a season, as both QBs are on that kind of pace.
2. Coaching. Mistakes, both mental and physical, are a reflection on the coaching staff's performance in the week leading up to the game. A well-prepared team makes FEW mistakes, and when they do, they correct them in practice the next week, or even later in that same game, and they have the team that can overcome them. The Panthers are STILL committing the same mistakes that should have been remedied by the end of TRAINING CAMP. Jumping offsides, forgetting the snap count, blowing coverages, etc. Perhaps the players have tuned out John Fox. Perhaps it's time for some new blood. Bill Cowher, are you listening?
3. Injuries. That part, even the best teams have to deal with. Injuries are a part of the game, and losing your best run stuffer, Maake Kemoeatu, in the first minute of training camp put the Panthers behind the 8 ball. But the good teams overcome those injuries. The good teams have minimal injuries. Remember the Patriots of 2007? They had very few injuries for the whole season. The Patriots very nearly overcame Tom Brady's devastating injury and made the playoffs last year.
4. Confidence. Or a lack thereof. Good teams KNOW they can win every time they step out on the field. Do they? A vast majority of the time. Consequently, bad teams know they can lose, and very often do.
5. Personnel. The Panthers have two beasts at RB in Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Why NOT average 40 rush attempts a game between the two? With 40 attempts at a 4.5 ypc average, the Panthers should average 180 rushing ypg. Build up depth in the offensive line. Don't rely on Delhomme to win the game, for crying out loud! Bench Delhomme. Put Matt Moore in there and see what he can do. AJ Feeley is NOT your long-term starter.

Now what should the Panthers do the rest of the season? I have some ideas.

1. Bench Delhomme for the rest of the season. Park his ass on that pine and tell him to get comfortable there, because that's where he'll be. Put Matt Moore in as starter.
2. Use Williams and Stewart more often, with a little bit of Mike Goodson thrown in.
3. Develop a #2 receiver to complement Steve Smith and eventually succeed Muhsin Muhammad.
4. Get healthy. The bye in Week 3 couldn't have come at a better time for the Panthers, as they had a long list of injuries. Last season, the Panthers were relatively healthy en route to winning the NFC South, although near the end of the season, the D-line was banged up significantly. This season, there is no continuity due to the injuries. Captain Munnerlyn got injured in the game against Buffalo.
5. Establish an identity that we're going out there to kick your ass up and down that field, and that you're going to be in for a LONG day. Maybe they don't make the playoffs, but they can build for next year.

Now I'm done with my little rant.

2009 AFC Predictions

Since the season starts tomorrow. I will condense my AFC picks for the season.

AFC EAST

1. New England
2. New York Jets
3. Miami
4. Buffalo

AFC SOUTH

1. Indianapolis
2. Houston*
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville

AFC NORTH

1. Pittsburgh
2. Baltimore*
3. Cincinnati
4. Cleveland

AFC WEST

1. San Diego
2. Oakland
3. Kansas City
4. Denver

Teams with an asterisk (*) following them are predicted wild card teams.

NFC Wild Cards: Atlanta, Philadelphia.

Super Bowl 44: San Diego Chargers vs. New York Giants.

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION: New York Giants.

2009 NFL Predictions--NFC West

After a delay due to unforeseen circumstances, I now continue with my analysis of the most unpredictable, Sybil-like division in the NFL, the NFC West.

Seattle Seahawks: I think this team has one more run in them. Matt Hasselbeck has some gas left in the tank, and he's healthy this year. John Carlson is vastly underrated as a TE. Look for him to have a huge year this year. However, there are issues with the offensive line. Walter Jones is on the shelf and is expected to return at some point in the season with a knee injury. The Hawks are going with a young, relatively inexperienced line to protect Hasselbeck. Julius Jones and Edgerrin James need to come up huge to ease the burden on Hasselbeck. T.J. Houshmanzadeh should help the receiving corps. The defense is healthy, and has the potential to be an elite unit. (1st)

Arizona Cardinals: this team will have a Super Bowl hangover. Losing both coordinators won't help matters. The running game is still in question. The offensive line is a true unit; none are Pro Bowlers, but they play well together. The defense is still solid, but it will take time to adjust to a new scheme. They do still have Kurt Warner and the Incredibles (Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin). Stephen Spach has made a great recovery from a torn ACL and will be the #1 TE. (2nd)

San Francisco 49ers: one man stands out on that team--Frank Gore. When healthy, he's capable of a 1,500-yard rushing season. He's a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Although Shaun Hill is the starting QB, I'm not impressed. He's warming the seat for future franchise QB Nate Davis. The WR position is still relatively unsettled, aside from Isaac Bruce. Vernon Davis figures to be a much happier man this season, as he will be used primarily as the receiving TE. The defense needs to put more pressure on the QB. Conversely, they also need to force more turnovers. If they can do that, they can push for a playoff spot. While I think they will improve from last season, they are still a year or two away from contending. (3rd)

St. Louis Rams: the biggest issue is the ownership. Georgia Frontiere's passing left the team in the hands of her son, Chip Rosenbloom. Where will they be in the future? Los Angeles? St. Louis? Somewhere else? Aside from the ownership, new coach Steve Spagnuolo has his work cut out for him. But to a man, everyone is buying into his "team first" mantra. He's molding the Rams into his image: a tough, run-first team, and building a stout defense. He's off to a good start with OT Jason Smith and LB James Laurinaitis. Both men will be stars in the NFL for a long time. I am especially high on Laurinaitis. The Rams will be good sooner rather than later. The last two seasons, they have had very good drafts. I look for them to win some games they would normally lose. (4th) P.S. I could easily flip-flop the Rams and 49ers, as I expect the Rams to play much better in the second half of the season.

2009 NFL Predictions--NFC North

My predictions continue with the NFC North.

Minnesota Vikings: they did acquire a certain ex-Packer gunslinger. While I think the acquisition will help stabilize the QB position in name only, it's not going to be enough for a Super Bowl run. Favre clearly is on the downside of his career, and at some point that will be exposed. They do have the best RB in the NFL in Adrian Peterson and a superb backup in Chester Taylor, but at some point, defenses will line up 8, sometimes 9, in the box to stop them. Back in the day, Favre would have ate that up all day, but his fastball has lost a lot of zip, and hitters are teeing off on it. While he'll have a solid offensive line to protect him, that lack of velocity will end up causing turnovers. The defense is solid, and they have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. They do have good enough balance to win the division, but a deep playoff run depends on the health of Favre. He's older, and more injury-prone. (1st)

Green Bay Packers: they have the division's best QB in Aaron Rodgers. Yes, I said it. Rodgers is BETTER than Cutler. Rodgers will continue to improve, and become that franchise QB. (Being Brett Favre's backup for several years doesn't hurt.) They need to have a more solid ground game. The defense is emerging under Dom Capers and should be vastly improved. The lack of a ground game will keep the Packers from becoming the best team in the division. (2nd)

Chicago Bears: while Jay Cutler is a very talented QB, he's not quite at Rodgers' level yet. But he'll get there. Cutler is the Bears' most legit franchise QB since Sid Luckman. If Cutler were a baseball player, he'd be known as a five-tool player. He has an emerging superstar RB in Matt Forte. But who does he have to throw the ball to? And that defense! It's getting older, and showing signs of wear and tear. (WHY didn't they draft James Laurinaitis to succeed Brian Urlacher?) Cutler will help ease the inevitable rebuilding process. (3rd)

Detroit Lions: where else can you go but UP after the first winless season in NFL history? I'm still shaking my head in disbelief that an NFL team ran the table in reverse. Jim Schwartz was brought in as the new head coach. Genius move. He's earned his shot. I expressed my disagreement about Matt Stafford being the first overall pick. I'll admit, he's proven me wrong. Give him a year as Daunte Culpepper's backup and he will grow into that franchise QB. The defense has been overhauled. It's still a work in progress. But the Lions will win some games this season. (4th)

TOMORROW: THE NFC WEST

2009 NFL Predictions--NFC South

Today, I'm doing things a bit different than all the other football mags. Instead of profiling the NFC North, I'm profiling the NFC South. (A FAR better conference than the NFC North, IMO.)

NFC SOUTH

Carolina Panthers: already, this team is facing injury issues. Maake Kemoeatu is out for the year with a torn Achilles' tendon. Jon Beason is nicked up. So is Steve Smith. So are Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, aka Smash and Dash. They have 21 of 22 possible starters returning. (Ken Lucas was cut.) Jake Delhomme has a lot to prove. Muhsin Muhammad, although 36, still has some good years left. The defense is solid, although Richard Marshall has to make the adjustment to being a starting CB. The schedule makers did the Panthers NO favors, although most of their tough games are at home. (1st)

Atlanta Falcons: their offense is first-class, with Matt Ryan proving to be a franchise QB. Michael Turner proved he was no fluke last season. Roddy White broke out big-time. They added future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez, who looks rejuvenated and is poised for a big year. However, the defense is very suspect. This team will be in their share of shootouts. The Falcons have almost as tough a schedule as Carolina, as they play a second place schedule. (2nd)

New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees will once again have a huge season, perhaps setting the new standard for pass yardage. It's a wonder his arm didn't fall off last season. Reggie Bush is poised to have a huge year. Now if only the Saints' coaching staff knew HOW to use Bush, the team would be MUCH better for it. We all know the Saints can move the ball and score. The Saints' defense is a question mark; like the Falcons, they'll be in their share of shootouts. (3rd)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: this team is a shell of what it once was. Ronde Barber is one of very few players left on the 2002 team that shellacked the Oakland Raiders in the Super Bowl. New coach, new system, new personnel. This is a big-time rebuilding process. Raheem Morris has to wonder sometimes what he got himself into. But, they do have young talent on both sides of the ball. They have an up and coming franchise QB in Josh Freeman. They got Derrick Ward via free agency, so there's some good building blocks there. But WHO'S going to catch the ball? On defense, WHOLE new system. Monte Kiffin's gone, he's with his son Lane at the University of Tennessee. Gone is the Tampa 2, replaced by a physical, pressing defense that emphasizes man to man. It'll take a couple of years, but I think the Bucs are on the right track. (4th)

TOMORROW: THE NFC NORTH.

2009 NFL Predictions--NFC East

I begin my annual breakdowns and predictions of each NFL team, division by division. I will do it a bit different this year. I will first predict the order of finish. Then when the last division (the AFC West) is done, I will then break down the playoff scenario, leading up to my predicted Super Bowl Champion.

NFC EAST

New York Giants: this team somehow finds ways to win when all seems lost. You cannot kill this team! Although they lost Derrick Ward to Tampa Bay, they still have a very potent 1-2 combo in Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Eli is Eli, he finds ways to make plays and put the team in position to win. They may have found Plaxico's replacement in Hakeem Nicks, the rookie WR out of North Carolina. Very solid, workmanlike team. (1st)

Philadelphia Eagles: they NEED to keep Donovan McNabb on his feet. With a banged-up, patchwork offensive line, it's going to be difficult, at least at the start of the season. Their projected starting line has not played one snap together. They do have the best set of skill position players in the Andy Reid era. LeSean McCoy is the perfect replacement for Brian Westbrook. WR Jason Avant is a trusty target for McNabb. The defense, while solid, will be handicapped with the loss of MLB Stewart Bradley to a season-ending knee injury. Fortunately for the Eagles, their opponent in the season opener, the Carolina Panthers, also have injury issues. And the Eagles have an advantage of an early bye week (Week 4), plus playing suspect defenses in New Orleans and Kansas City. They should get healthy when their schedule turns brutal. (2nd)

Dallas Cowboys: they got rid of two jinxes: Terrell Owens and Jessica Simpson. The Cowboys cut Owens in the offseason and Tony Romo did the same to Ms. Simpson. I look for Romo to return to the 2007 version of Romo. The Cowboys have as talented a roster as any team in the league. Coaching, or lack thereof, will doom the Cowboys. Perhaps Jerry Jones has Bill Cowher or Mike Holmgren on speed dial. (3rd)

Washington Redskins: this is a team that is going to struggle to put points on the board, despite the talent they have on offense. And when you have a team that struggles to put points on the board, that defense will be on the field for a long time. When they are on, they can beat anyone. They seem to play their best football within the division. It's OUTSIDE of the division where they struggle and frankly, suck. This is a .500 team at best, a 6-10 team at worst. (4th)

TOMORROW: THE NFC SOUTH

My new sports blog page

This is my first post at my new sports blog page. After many bouts of frustration with the previous host, I have decided to move my sports blogs to this location as of January 1, 2009.

A brief overview about me: I am a passionate sports fan from the Central Valley of California. I am a huge football and NASCAR fan. I also like basketball, baseball, MMA, and hockey. I'll have a greater overview in my bio page.

I am looking forward to blogging here for the foreseeable future. While I enjoyed my previous location, it was time for me to go forward and blog unfiltered and uncensored, free of porn and other assorted spam. I am looking forward to your comments and spirited debate on the sports issues of the day.

jon464