NASCAR at the halfway point

So far this season, we are at the halfway point. This is the time when drivers on the Chase bubble become desperate. There's little, if any, room for error. This is when they need to be consistent, and finish consistently high. For those that are safely in the top 12, it's points racing time until that Chase spot is locked up, then if there are still a couple of races before the Chase, they can and typically do race for wins. That being said, I will analyze the top 20 in the points standings, and give their chances to make the Chase.

1. Kevin Harvick: he's been at or near the top of the points since California, where he finished second to Jimmie Johnson. The 29 team's turnaround actually began at Atlanta last season, where Harvick finished second to Kasey Kahne. The spoiler has actually helped the 29 team, and the car seems to be dialed in every week. He has won once, at Talladega in a thriller over Jamie McMurray. After Pocono, the circuit comes to tracks that favor Harvick. Chance to make Chase: highly likely.
2. Kyle Busch: he's coming off a terrific and dominant May, winning in all three series. With two wins (at Richmond and Dover), he would actually be ahead of Harvick if the Chase started Sunday. He's a threat to win every week. He could also finish 30th in any given race. This is what makes him must-see TV. Chance to make Chase: highly likely.
3. Matt Kenseth: he has run much more consistent and Kenseth-like than he did this time last year. Major props for blowing out his crew chief after Daytona in favor of Todd Parrott. The move immediately paid dividends. Although he hasn't won yet this year, I don't think it will be long before he visits Vicky in her Lane lair. Although he's 117 points in arrears, a consistent second half of the season and he's back in the Chase. Chance to make Chase: very likely.
4. Jeff Gordon: NASCAR's elder statesman has that fire in his belly again. Although he hasn't won yet, it's not going to be long before he wins. An early-season tiff with Jimmie Johnson has helped stoke those fires. He gained two positions in the standings after Charlotte, and he's capable of moving up even more, especially with a trip back home to Sonoma on the horizon. I would not be surprised to see him return to Victory Lane at his home track in Sonoma. Chance to make Chase: very likely.
5. Denny Hamlin: with three wins, he's tied with Johnson for the most on the circuit. If the Chase started Sunday, he would actually be considered in first place because of more points going in. He does have a maddening tendency to put himself in the wrong place at the wrong time, and in the worst spots. Still, he's been stout all season, and I expect him to keep it up. Chance to make Chase: very likely.
6. Kurt Busch: like younger brother Kyle, he capped off a great May by winning at Charlotte. Prior to the win, Kurt had NEVER had as much a top 10 in the 600. He has had the 1.5 mile tracks mastered, at least this year. Pocono is also a very strong track for Busch. He is running like the 2004 version that won the championship driving for Jack Roush. Chance to make Chase: very likely.
7. Jimmie Johnson: he has been in a freefall since the tiff with Gordon. Since NASCAR went with the spoiler, Johnson and the 48 team have not been sharp, often running like a non-Chase team. He has more DNFs this season than the last three seasons COMBINED. (He has 3 this year; from 2007-09 he had two.) With tracks not favorable to JJ coming up, he'll have to scramble to make the Chase. While he's capable of multiple wins, he also is capable of some bad finishes. Could this be the year he misses the Chase? Chance to make Chase: likely.
8. Jeff Burton: like his teammate Harvick, he has run more consistently. But can he put it together to win a race? Only time will tell. His blow up with Kyle Busch after Charlotte was very uncharacteristic. In my opinion, it reflected the frustration of not winning. Chance to make Chase: likely.
9. Greg Biffle: he's been a consistent top 10 finisher, racking up eight such finishes. He'll need to be more consistent and win a few races to make the Chase. Most of the remaining tracks favor Biffle. Chance to make Chase: likely.
10. Mark Martin: he put it together at this time last year to make the Chase after being in 35th place going into Bristol's spring race. He was the hottest driver not named Jimmie Johnson. He is certainly capable of doing it again, and I wouldn't put it past him to rip off a few wins. Chance to make Chase: likely.
11. Carl Edwards: he's been spotty at best. Although he has six top 10s, he also has two DNFs and some other bad results. A few bad results could cause him to miss the Chase; consequently, some good results (along with some wins) will greatly boost his chances. At this point, I see him doing just enough to make the Chase. Chance to make Chase: not likely.
12. Ryan Newman: he's on the proverbial hot seat, just four points ahead of 13th. From this point on, it's a crapshoot. While he does have one win this year, I don't see the consistency needed for him to make the Chase. Chance to make Chase: not likely.
13. Clint Bowyer: he's only four points behind Newman as Pocono nears. I just don't see that high-level consistency needed to make the Chase. Perhaps Bowyer can turn it around, but I don't see that happening, at least not this year. Chance to make Chase: not likely.
14. Martin Truex, Jr.: this team is starting to put it together at the right time. It's important to go into the Chase with Big Mo on your side, and if Truex does make the Chase, he'll have that Big Mo. But they have to keep it up for the last half of the season, through the dog days of summer. It's possible, but I think they come up just short. Chance to make Chase: not likely.
15. Jamie McMurray: this is a team that CAN put it together. And I can see it happening. I think the 1 team gets at least one more win, if not more. I'll go out on a limb and say, Cupcake makes the Chase, and even wins a Chase race. Chance to make Chase: likely.
16. Tony Stewart: Smoke hasn't been nearly as consistent this year as last year. But the summer is coming, and Smoke historically is much better. Could he make the Chase? It's possible, considering his history. I say he does. Chance to make Chase: likely.
17. Dale Earnhardt Jr: maddeningly inconsistent. With only three top 10s, he better get on his horse if he's going to make the Chase. He cannot afford any more mulligans. One more finish in the 30s and he can kiss his Chase chances goodbye. Chance to make Chase: not likely.
18. Joey Logano: one thing I like about this kid is he's always battling for the best possible result, always striving to move up one position. Underneath that calm, easygoing exterior is the heart of a true competitor. That will serve him well now and in the future. If he doesn't make the Chase, it won't be because of a lack of effort. I wouldn't rule out his chances, but it's a long shot. Chance to make Chase: not likely.
19. David Reutimann: the 00 Dream Team is finally starting to make noise. But with only 13 races left before the Chase, I think it's too little, too late. He can use the remainder of the season as a tuneup for next season. Chance to make Chase: remote.
20. Juan Pablo Montoya: hard to believe that at this time last year we were mentioning him as a possible Chase contender. He eventually made the Chase and did halfway decently in his first Chase. This year is another story. Although he has six top 10s, he also has four DNFs. He's more than one whole race behind Ryan Newman, meaning he has to make up an average of 12 points per race, a very difficult feat to do. I don't see it happening for JPM, at least not this year. Chance to make Chase: no chance.

That's how I see the second half of the regular season shaping up. Carl Edwards and Ryan Newman are out, and Jamie McMurray and Tony Stewart are in. As for the Chase itself, I see a three-man battle for the title: Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Jeff Gordon. Those three drivers are focused on the big picture, not getting involved in petty battles. I see Gordon emerging with his fifth Cup title, narrowly edging Harvick and Busch.