The 12 Chase Drivers for 2011

Greetings my fellow NASCAR fans! A new season is upon us. This is where you hope SOMEONE will be able to dethrone Jimmie Johnson THIS season. Having said that, here are my 12 drivers that will make the Chase this season, in predicted order of finish, starting with 12th. (An asterisk next to their name denotes wild card.)

• Jeff Burton*: he'll finish just outside the top 10, but will make it based on his three wins going into the Chase. But there are too many other good drivers ahead of him for him to make serious noise in the Chase. Predicted finish: 12th.
• Clint Bowyer: he'll be more consistent than last season. Predicted finish: 11th.
• Tony Stewart: I'm probably going to catch some flak from Smoke fans, but I see him having one bad race early in the Chase that will have him trailing the field. That one bad race will cost him a chance to win his third title. He'll do his best to catch up, but I only see him gaining three spots. But, if he avoids that, he'll be in contention. (I hope he's consistent, and he's in contention heading into Homestead.) Predicted finish: 10th.
• Jeff Gordon: we'll see him in Victory Lane this season. Paired with Alan Gustafson, I won't be surprised to see him contend for the title. However, I see him falling a bit short. Predicted finish: 9th.
• Kyle Busch: he'll be the only Busch Brother in the Chase. It's either going to be hit or miss. He'll have a few misses along with a lot of hits. He'll run better than last year, but the competition is very intense, and he'll fall short. Predicted finish: 8th.
• Greg Biffle: we'll see Biff in Victory Lane a few times this season, and he'll be strong heading into the Chase. But I see a late season fade. Predicted finish: 7th.
• Denny Hamlin: last year had to be demoralizing, when he had the championship lead going into Homestead, but made that crucial error allowing Jimmie Johnson to overtake him. I see some hangover this year. Predicted finish: 6th.
• Matt Kenseth: he'll be his usual consistent self in the Chase. He'll finish where he started in the Chase. Predicted finish: 5th.
• Jamie McMurray*: he'll finish behind Burton in the regular season standings, but get in based on his three wins going into the Chase. I see him getting on a roll and winning a couple more races in the Chase. He'll be in contention heading into Homestead, but struggles at Homestead will cost him a chance at a championship. He'll learn and grow from this. Predicted finish: 4th.
• Carl Edwards: he ended last season on a roll, winning the final two races and establishing himself as a contender. IF he finishes as strong as he starts, he COULD end up dethroning JJ. But I don't see it happening, at least not this year. He'll be stout, but fall just short. Predicted finish: 3rd.
• Kevin Harvick: he had arguably the best season of his Cup career. He led the points for much of the season. Due to the bonuses in the Chase, he started in third and finished there. He'll start in third and improve a position. Predicted finish: 2nd.
• Jimmie Johnson: he'll be here until someone dethrones him. I look for him to win a very tight battle between him, Harvick, and Edwards. Your 2011 Sprint Cup Champion: JIMMIE JOHNSON. Predicted finish: 1st and still Champion.

Those are my 12 Chase drivers for this year. It was very hard deciding on WHO was going to make the Chase, as I think 15 drivers could be Chase contenders. Just as I see these drivers I think could win it all: Johnson, Harvick, Edwards, McMurray, Stewart, Gordon, Kyle Busch, and Hamlin. LET'S GO RACIN' BOYS!

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly -- Price Chopper 400

This week, after a two-week absence due to moving into smaller, more cramped quarters, the Crappafoni Pictures crew is back at it with Toto in the land of Oz to bring you this week's version of The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, complete with BBQ ribs, grilled corn, and all the rest of the fixin's. Enjoy!

THE GOOD

Greg Biffle: as the race winner, he gets first billing. He was especially dominant in the second half of the race and he checked out with 50 laps to go. The race was for second place. He was that dominant. For awhile, I've been saying that Carl Edwards would be in the thick of the title hunt. After today, I substitute Biff for Edwards as the triumvirate that will fight it out for the title, along with Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick.

Jimmie Johnson: he was mired in the middle of the field most of the race. It's a testament to the 48 crew that Johnson finished second when he easily could have finished 20th. They made the car better and better as the race went on. An added plus: he leads by three points over Denny Hamlin, and it's good to lead after the third race of the Chase, as four of the last six years, the champion has led after the third race of the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: he led 16 laps after starting mid-pack. Once again, the master of "where'd he come from?" strikes again en route to a third place finish. He also moves up two positions in the points standings, 30 behind Johnson. But at this point he needs WINS, not top 5 finishes. Top 5s won't cut it this year.

Tony Stewart: he led the most laps, but didn't have enough for the Biff's onslaught. Still, it was a sorely needed good run for Smoke, and it puts him in striking distance of Johnson.

Jeff Gordon: HE needed a good run, and got it. This sets him up nicely for Fontana next week. Now if he can only cash one or two wins in, he'd be in great shape!

Paul Menard: he led the most laps in one race, careerwise. The 98 team was strong when they unloaded, strong in qualifying, and strong in the race. He was able to make two tires work when he took two tires for track position late in the race. I have blasted him in the past NUMEROUS times, but today I'm giving him his props. He's earned his place in Cup. He'll be a winner at RCR next season.

Honorable Mention: Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, AJ Allmendinger, and Jamie McMurray.

THE BAD

Landon Cassill: he drew the short straw at this week's Start and Parkers' meeting in the Todd Bodine Meeting Room. According to NASCAR.COM, it was a "Rear Gear" issue. Let's face it: he PARKED IT. Who are we bullshitting here? We the People AREN'T STUPID. And if I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

THE UGLY

Kasey Kahne: he was running pretty decently until he got loose and slapped the wall. Then as he was making his way around the track, he cut a left front tire and tore up the #9. Needless to say, his day was ruined.

Those are my picks for the week. Feel free to come in with yours!

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly -- Pennsylvania 500

For the monumental 100th post on Blogspot, the Crappafoni Pictures crew is in the mountains of eastern Pennsylvania to bring you this week's edition of The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, served up with Philly cheesesteaks and fries and washed down with copious amounts of Coke Zero. Enjoy!

THE GOOD

Greg Biffle: as the race winner, he gets first billing. At the beginning of the race, he looked like he had a 20th-place car at best. But as the race went on, the 16 crew kept getting the car better and better. Kudos to Biff for making two-tire stops work, as they usually don't. What really helped him was the last red flag for rain, cooling down the track. The 16 car came to life after that. He took two tires on the last pit stop, and checked out after passing Sam Hornish Jr on the last restart. Props to Biff for breaking a 65-race winless streak dating back to September 2008, when he won at Dover. The win was Ford's first of the season.

Tony Stewart: he won the pole but was immediately passed by Jeff Gordon at the start of the race. He did lead a lap under the first round of green flag pit stops. Like Biffle, he was better as the track got cooler. He took four tires on the last pit stop and made up eight positions on the track, but Biffle was so much better.

Carl Edwards: he could be the next Ford driver to win, as he's been showing the form that made him a threat to win every week in 2008, regardless of the track. He led a lap under the second round of green flag pit stops (he has led six laps so far this year, and still trails Mattias Eckstrom, who led once for eight laps in Sonoma, and he led as many laps as JJ Yeley today). He started way back in 25th, and immediately worked his way towards the front, eventually finishing third, and able to hold off Kevin Harvick at the end. (Note to Carl: Kevin could have EASILY dumped you at ANY time, but didn't. That should show you he's a CLEAN driver.)

Kevin Harvick: the points leader had a pretty decent qualifying run (he qualified 14th). For the first half of the race, he was hanging from positions 12-16. But once he moved into the top 10, he stayed there. He was running as high as third at one point. His fourth place finish marked his fourth top 10 finish at the track, and his second straight fourth place finish there. (He also finished in the top 10 in both Pocono races in his rookie season of 2001.) Harvick actually increased his points lead by five; he now leads Jeff Gordon by 189 points.

Denny Hamlin: the modern-day Master of Pocono at one point looked like he was going to win his FIFTH Pocono race in his last 10. I bet he wishes Pocono was on the schedule every week! He actually increased his points margin over fourth place Jimmie Johnson to 17 points.

Jimmie Johnson: he was stout enough to lead the most laps in the race (98). He qualified sixth and it took him no time to get to the front. He stayed there for the first half of the race. It's the second half that bit him in the butt.

Honorable Mention: Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Jeff Burton, Martin Truex, Jr., and Sam Hornish, Jr.

THE BAD

Michael McDowell: he was the first of the start and parkers, declaring himself done after completing 23 laps. (Dave Blaney went out a lap later.)

Marcos Ambrose: I hate putting the likeable Aussie in here, but today I must. He qualified 19th, a decent starting position, but quickly went backwards. The news that he was leaving JTG-Daugherty Racing for RPM could have had an effect on the team. Was it coincidence that Ambrose's engine expired early because of his imminent departure? I'm just saying.

P.J. Jones: he was parked by NASCAR for going too slow after 63 laps. At least he completed a quarter of the race! (At Sonoma in 2009, he parked it after TWO laps!) Had Robby Gordon been behind the wheel, he'd have given it an HONEST effort. If you look in the dictionary under "start and parker", P.J. Jones' face can be seen. I cringe when he's in the field because I know he'll beat everyone to the post-race Cupcake display.

THE UGLY

Elliott Sadler: he was involved in one of the most horrific crashes I've seen in quite awhile. The only angle that showed was Sadler's car slamming into a grass berm before the entrance to Turn 3. The crash was so brutal, the engine was ripped from the car like a piece of paper. A Good to NASCAR for its implementation of safety innovations in the new car, and for Sadler escaping with only bruises.

Jimmie Johnson: I've got to put him in this category for starting a crash that took out a good car in Kurt Busch's and in the ensuing melee, for putting Sadler's car into that grass berm. What was he doing trying to draft bump Busch with Clint Bowyer to Busch's right? He flat out wrecked Kurt AGAIN. Plain and simple.

ESPN: MUST we be subject to their blathering on during a rain delay? And do us a favor: institute the split-screen during commercials, like you do during the Indy 500! And STOP with the overhyping of Chris Berman getting the Pete Rozelle Award! His act is old and tired anyway! (Rant over.)

Those are my nominees for the race. Feel free to come in with yours!

Gas and Go--Fontana

This week's Gas and Go has a Southern California flavor. More laid back than the usual G & Gs. I will offer some short insights and takes leading into this race.

1. Roush, Roush, Roush. Roush drivers have seemingly dominated this race almost from the get-go. Matt Kenseth is the defending race champion. Kenseth has won three times at Fontana. Carl Edwards has won once, the spring race in 2008. Even Kurt Busch and Mark Martin have won while driving under the Roush banner.
2. Not to be outdone, Hendrick Motorsports drivers have won a total of eight times. One of Jimmie Johnson's very first Cup wins came at Fontana, on April 28, 2002. Johnson has won four times, Jeff Gordon has won three times, and Kyle Busch became the youngest winner in NASCAR history at the time by four days (since broken by Joey Logano, 18 at the time) when he got his first Cup win on Labor Day weekend of 2006.
3. Speaking of Roush, I look for the Roush drivers to show their strength, particularly Carl Edwards. He is itching to get back in Victory Lane. He'll have several drivers to contend with.
4. Jeff Gordon was the inaugural winner at Fontana, on June 22, 1997.
5. Thinking of you: Dan Gurney.
6. Look for some wide-open racing, especially since there are no restrictor plates and multiple grooves.
7. While RCR hasn't had very much success in the past, I look for them to be strong. Having three teams seems to agree with everyone at RCR, from Richard Childress on down.

Predicted Race Winner: Greg Biffle. He started the season strong at Daytona and I look for him to continue the trend. I look for him to start within the first three rows and quickly move to the front and stay at or near the front. Biffle has won at Fontana once, in February 2005.

Information courtesy of www.nascar.com.