Reflections on the 2010 NASCAR season

We have one race to go before a bow is put on the 2010 season in NASCAR. One race. Four hundred miles. Three drivers within 46 points of each other. All that work from January to this point comes down to this, and possibly the final pit stop of the season. But before I get to the drama, I want to reflect on this season as not only a NASCAR fan, but as a Kevin Harvick fan.

Coming into this season, I had hopes that Harvick would bounce back and make the Chase. At the very least break his long winless streak. He finished the 2009 season strong, giving me and many other Harvick fans hope. Happy started strong and I was hoping Daytona would be where he would break his streak. He got bit by the new three G-W-C rule. Then consecutive second place finishes to Jimmie Johnson at California and Las Vegas and the lucky horseshoe quote after California.

Harvick took the points lead early in the season and held it for 20 consecutive weeks. FINALLY, that elusive win came at Talladega when he edged Jamie McMurray in a photo finish, making a gutsy pass with roughly a quarter mile to go. The pass was perfect; if Harvick passed too soon, McMurray could respond. If it was too late, he wouldn't have enough room to pass McMurray.

Happy would follow up with wins at Daytona and Michigan. The win at Michigan totally floored and surprised me. He not only won, he led the most laps en route to the win. He was STOUT. The late Dale Earnhardt won at Michigan ONE TIME, in 1990. Up to that point, it was RCR's only win at Michigan. If a Chevy won, it was usually from Hendrick Motorsports. But Michigan is where Roush Fenway Racing is usually dominant. I'd have been happy with a top 10!

Going into the Chase, Harvick lost his points lead to Denny Hamlin. He was 40 points behind Hamlin at Loudon. He's lost six points since. Now he has to make up all 46 points. It doesn't look good for Harvick, but 46 points is not a lot of ground to make up, particularly if Hamlin struggles and Harvick has a strong run. And Homestead may be Harvick's strongest track. He's completed every lap of every race, and has a slew of top 10's. In fact, in his last five Homestead starts, Harvick has four top 5's.

NOW the drama. As mentioned earlier, the top three drivers (Hamlin, Johnson, and Harvick) are within 46 points of each other. NONE of these drivers can afford even a minor slip up. A mistake or penalty can cost a driver a championship. Although Hamlin leads Johnson by 15 points, he's feeling the pressure of being the hunted. Johnson has not trailed going into the final race since 2005. Normally this race is a coronation for Johnson.

The scenarios.

1. Hamlin: if he finishes ahead of Johnson and Harvick, he wins the title. Hamlin can still win the title if: 1) he wins the race and Johnson finishes second and leads the most laps; 2) he finishes second to Johnson AND leads the most laps.
2. Johnson: HE wins IF he wins the race, leads the most laps, and Hamlin finishes fourth or worse; or he finishes four positions AHEAD of Hamlin and ahead of Harvick.
3. Harvick: HE wins the title IF 1) he wins the race and leads the most laps AND Johnson finishes fourth or worse AND Hamlin finishes 8th or worse. But assuming none of the three wins the race but each leads laps, Harvick wins the title if he finishes six positions AHEAD of Johnson and ten positions ahead of Hamlin.

While Harvick has the toughest road to climb, he does have the experience of winning two Busch Series titles, so he knows how to win a championship. Obviously Johnson is Four-Time, and the record speaks for itself. While I'd love for Harvick to win, my head says Johnson is Five-Time, with Harvick finishing second in the points and Hamlin third. Something tells me Hamlin is going to struggle big time, and Johnson and Harvick will fight it out for the title.