With Loudon set to kick off the Chase tomorrow, I'll give a rundown of the drivers, current standings, and predicted standings.
Ryan Newman: the driver of the #39 U.S. Army Chevrolet sits in 10th place after readjustments. He's been up and down, although he has run better of late. I just see his inconsistencies catching up to him in the Chase. Predicted finish: 12th.
Brian Vickers: he currently sits in eighth place after readjustments. While he's won once, what will hurt him is that this is his first time in the Chase. It's like a young team making the playoffs for the first time; the experience of being there will benefit them in the future. Vickers will use this year's Chase to benefit him in future Chases. Predicted finish: 11th.
Greg Biffle: after readjustments, he sits 12th going into Loudon, 40 points behind leader Mark Martin. He limped into the Chase after a strong early season. This team is off kilter, more so than usual. While Biff hasn't forgotten how to drive, he's been hampered by inconsistency, bad luck, and pit crew mistakes. You can't just flip the switch when the Chase starts. He benefits from having been in the Chase before, and he knows how to get the job done, having finished a career-high second in 2005. But the inconsistency will hamper him. Predicted finish: 10th.
Kasey Kahne: the two-time winner currently sits fifth. While he runs strong most of the time, he tends to take a couple of races off where he's not a factor. He cannot afford that in this year's Chase, as everyone is capable of winning a championship. Unfortunately, he'll get into the mode of taking a couple of races off in the last 10. Predicted finish: 9th.
Carl Edwards: he hasn't set the world on fire like he did last year, mainly because of improved competition. But the Quack Attack (Edwards' crew) hasn't looked sharp, either. The Quack Attack has looked better as of late and will get Cousin Carl his first win of the season. That's going to help. He could be a factor, and could still be mathematically alive to win his first Cup championship. Predicted finish: 8th.
Kurt Busch: he knows how to get the job done. Currently, he sits seventh. Losing Pat Tryson at the end of the season will affect the Blue Deuce's performance as the season winds down. He'll sit seventh after Homestead. Predicted finish: 7th.
Tony Stewart: Smoke may have peaked too early. He currently sits second. He was the first driver to clinch a Chase spot, and it appears he may have let up. I'm sure he didn't, but at this juncture he has struggled. Not what you want to be doing when you want to win a championship. Predicted finish: 6th.
Denny Hamlin: he comes into the Chase energized after winning at his home track. He'll run especially strong for the first half, and be a factor to win it all. Like his rookie year in 2006, he's not going away. (Hamlin is the only rookie to ever make the Chase, and has made the Chase every year he's been on the circuit.) He will be a factor, and if he escapes Talladega with a very strong finish or even a win, he could break Jimmie Johnson's string of championships. But he's been inconsistent at 'Dega and it will haunt him this year. Predicted finish: 5th.
Mark Martin: this guy knows how to get it done. The #5 crew has been sharp from the spring Bristol race on. He is the current points leader, and will be in it until the checkered flag at Homestead. Predicted finish: 4th.
Juan Pablo Montoya: like Vickers, this is his first time in the Chase. Unlike Vickers, he has won championships in other racing series (CART/IRL in 2000), and is a seven-time Formula One winner. He knows pressure and how to deal with it. We haven't seen the best of JPM yet. But because of his past experiences in winning big races, he will draw on that, combined with his daring and aggressive style, to be a factor. Don't be surprised if he pulls off two or three wins in the Chase, including Talladega, where he's always run very well. Predicted finish: 3rd.
Jeff Gordon: the four-time champion comes into the Chase on a roll. He'll put his balky back on the back burner (no pun intended) in his quest for a fifth championship. He'll have a VERY good look at it, but come up short. He's won at every track in the Chase but Homestead. I think he wins at Homestead but comes up just short. Predicted finish: 2nd.
And now, your 2009 Sprint Cup champion
Jimmie Johnson: he makes history by becoming the first driver in NASCAR history to win four straight championships. This team is focused like a laser on winning the championship. You're going to see the very best of JJ and the #48 team, as they will go on an ungodly roll of five wins in a six race span. This team is capable of going on such a roll; one year, he won four consecutive races IN the Chase, finished second, then finished first for five wins in a six race span. They are the New England Patriots of NASCAR. To beat JJ and this team, you're going to have to be on your A+ game the last 10 races, because THEY will be on THEIR A game. And as we've seen, their A game is better than everyone else's A game. They are on a whole different playing field. Predicted finish: 1st.
Those are my analyses and predictions for the 2009 Chase. Feel free to come in and comment.
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6 comments:
I can see most of these final standings as you have picked them. Although I see Edwards in the top five and probably winning more than once.
Vickers has won a title. He was the youngest driver ever to win the Busch Series Championship.
I agree with you on some of these. But I do not feel Smoke has peaked too soon. I think they did lose alittle focus during the past four races. But let's face it they didn't have anything to really gain except an extra 10 points.
But I think either Denny Hamlin or Edwards will win. But I will give you a dark horse: Juan Pablo Montoya. This year has been so strange that anything is possible.
But my hope is that Smoke wins it for a third time!
Just NO Johnson or Gordon.
Nice breakdown Jon. I think most of your predictions will be quite accurate.
My only recommendation is to flip flop Stewart and Montoya. I believe Tony will be on his A game for all ten races. He may have been just taking it easy these past couple of weeks...
Gene, I thought about putting Edwards in the top 5. He has ran better in the last month or so, but not necessarily getting the results to show for it.
Tsfan, the 14 crew has to be on its game for all 10 races. While I think Smoke can win it this year, my gut says he'll come up short. I'm definitely pulling for Smoke to win it. And I agree that Montoya will be a dark horse to win it all.
Gonger, thanks. I think both Smoke and Montoya will have a chance to win it all going into Homestead.
While I don't think Kasey Kahne is eliminated, he's in a serious hole, being well over 100 points behind after one race. But another finish in the 30's and he's done. Stick a fork in him.
so the big question will be if Tony is the All Blacks or the Brits....the AB's peak in Rugby Union in the years between the biggest prize while the Poms tend to be building up nicely leading into the World Cup, lol
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